Separation of Heat Flow Processes in the North Atlantic into Various Components and Their Analysis
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Abstract
The heat flux distribution in the North Atlantic calculated using a stochastic difference equation scheme, namely, a first-order autoregressive scheme with random coefficients, is studied. The ERA5 database, containing geophysical data for 40 years, from 1979 to 2018, is used. The coefficients for the autoregressive series were previously determined based on these data, and it is shown that the conditions on the coefficients ensure the existence and uniqueness of a solution to this difference equation. The method for calculating distributions is based on successive integration using an autoregressive scheme. Computational experiments are conducted and analyzed. Moreover, it is shown that the theoretically calculated distributions are in good agreement with their empirical counterparts. Further, after the division of the original time series into a distinguished mean (trend) and a residual, the latter is analyzed as a stationary random process. Selected correlation functions were calculated and it is shown that they are well approximated by known analytical expressions. Those approximations allow explicitly filtering and prediction of the process under study. Numerical calculations were performed on the Lomonosov-2 supercomputer at Moscow State University.
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References
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