Integration of Semantic Mathematical Modeling for the Analysis of Energy Security Problems
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Abstract
The study addresses the problem of integrating cognitive and mathematical modeling in research on the development directions of the fuel and energy complex, taking into account energy security requirements. The relevance of the work is due to the fact that in the existing two-level research methodology, the transition from the results of qualitative analysis using cognitive modeling to the parameters of the mathematical model is largely performed manually, which reduces the reproducibility of numerical experiments and limits the efficiency of accumulated knowledge usage. The aim of the work is to develop a software component that ensures the combined use of cognitive and mathematical models within an Energy Knowledge Ecosystem. A software component is proposed, implemented as part of the INTEC‑SAW suite, which provides the transformation of changes in the cognitive model into the parameters of the economic-mathematical model, as well as the reverse interpretation of calculation results. Technology for conducting numerical experiments has been developed, including the construction of semantic (ontological and cognitive) models, formation of computational scenarios, execution of optimization calculations, and presentation of results, distinguished by the automation of the joint use of ontological, cognitive, and economic-mathematical models. To account for uncertainty, a numerical method of stochastic parameter adjustment based on cognitive weights is proposed. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through a numerical experiment investigating the impact of CO₂ emission constraints on the energy balances of the Siberian Federal District. The practical significance of the work lies in increasing the validity and reproducibility of research on the development of the fuel and energy complex through the coordinated use of qualitative and quantitative analysis tools.
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References
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