Stability Studies of a Coupled Model to Perturbation of Initial Data

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Konstantin Pavlovich Belyaev
Gury Mikhaylovich Mikhaylov
Alexey Nikolaevich Salnikov
Natalia Pavlovna Tuchkova

Abstract

The stability problem is considered in terms of the classical Lyapunov definition. For this, a set of initial conditions is set, consisting of their preliminary calculations, and the spread of the trajectories obtained as a result of numerical simulation is analyzed. This procedure is implemented as a series of ensemble experiments with a joint MPI-ESM model of the Institute of Meteorology M. Planck (Germany). For numerical modeling, a series of different initial values of the characteristic fields was specified and the model was integrated, starting from each of these fields for different time periods. Extreme ocean level characteristics over a period of 30 years were studied. The statistical distribution was built, the parameters of this distribution were estimated, and the statistical forecast for 5 years in advance was studied. It is shown that the statistical forecast of the level corresponds to the calculated forecast obtained by the model. The localization of extreme level values was studied and an analysis of these results was carried out. Numerical calculations were performed on the Lomonosov-2 supercomputer of Lomonosov Moscow State University.

Article Details

Author Biographies

Konstantin Pavlovich Belyaev

Leading scientist of Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Science. Doctor of science, professor of Dept of Appiied Math and Cybernetics, Lomonosov Moscow State University. Research interests – math modelling and data assimilation, statistical analysis of natural data.

Gury Mikhaylovich Mikhaylov

Leading scientist of Dorodnicyn computing center FRC SCS RAS, PhD in physics with a math degree. Research interests include architecture of computing systems and networks, computing and information technology.

Alexey Nikolaevich Salnikov

Leading researcher Dept of Appiied Math and Cybernetics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, PhD in physics with a math degree. Research interests include bioinformatics, parallel and supercomputing programming

Natalia Pavlovna Tuchkova

Senior researcher of Dorodnicyn computing center FRC SCS RAS, PhD in physics with a math degree, graduated from CS Faculty of Lomonosov MSU. The expert in the field of algorithmic languages and information technologies.

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